By Q. Jones

As the 2006 midterm elections grow closer, the question circulating Capitol Hill is will the Democratic Party reclaim the House of Representatives and the Senate? Democrats need six seats to secure the Senate and fifteen seats to ensure the House. Speculation suggests that Democratic chances of capturing both chambers are better than good—most believe the House to be a guarantee.

There are nine contested seats in the Senate race. With the exception of New Jersey eight of these nine seats are held by Republican incumbents. With Ohio, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, and Montana teetering left, analysts of both parties agree that Democrats need to secure two more seats in Virginia, Missouri or Tennessee.

Pennsylvania
The Pennsylvania Senate race may belong to Democratic elect Bob Casey, whose consistent lead over incumbent Rick Santorum may end his twelve year senate career. A Mason-Dixon poll conducted on September 22nd-26th, 2006, which accounts for a +/- 4% margin of error, places Casey nine points ahead of Santorum. Santorum’s lull in the polls is due to increasing criticism that suggests his allegiance lie in DC rather than the state; making Casey, the state’s current treasurer, an ideal reform candidate.

Ohio
The Ohio Senate race features a tighter competition with democratic elect Sherrod Brown, a congressman from the 13th District, running against Republican incumbent Mike DeWine. According to a Mason-Dixon poll conducted on September 25th -27th 2006, Brown, at 45%, holds a slight over the Republican Senator Mike Dewine, whose polls put him at 43%. Despite a close race, scandal in the state GOP and the Republican National Convention’s withdrawal of support does not bode well for DeWine, and could give a far of left Brown the edge needed to take the state.

Missouri
A deadlocked Missouri Senate race between Republican incumbent James M. Talent and democratic elect Claire McCaskill, has become a political war zone, both candidates battling for turf and street credibility. Talent is pouring funds into negative ad campaigns that state McCaskill will “lie … and … cheat.” Talent has concentrated his monetary and campaign efforts on suburban areas, where his opponent holds support. McCaskill, in turn, will be forced to sway a Republican rural center she offers superior state representation.

Montana
Despite its Republican tradition the Montana Senate race slightly favors democratic elect Jon Tester to the Republican incumbent Conrad Burns. A Mason-Dixon poll, conducted on September 26th-28th, 2006 places Tester three points ahead of Burns. Burn has fallen from public graces, due to his tendency to make insensitive remarks, such as calling terrorists those who “drive taxicabs in the daytime and kill at night”. His margins of victory have decreased in his past two election years. In 1994 election he won 61% but dropped to 51% in 2000. Perhaps an embarrassed constituency has grown impatient enough to abandon their traditional Republican stance for a Democratic candidate.

According to the Washington Post, thirteen of the 35 contested Congressional seats are leaning left, while only four are leaning Republican. Republican incumbents hold the majority of these contested seats, so the Democrats, needing to pick up 15 seats, only need two more districts to swing left to reclaim the House. Here are a few key House races to watch to see how things are trending.

Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District The race in Pennsylvania’s 8th District features Democratic candidate Patrick Murphy running against incumbent Republican Michael G. Fitzpatrick. This southeastern corner of the state was once a Republican stronghold, but has become increasingly more moderate, hosting an electorate with environmentalist concerns. Over the course of campaigning, Patrick Murphy has grown from a green politician to formidable candidate. Polls indicate a slight lead over Fitzpatrick, but Fitzpatrick has twice the funding Murphy does, so do not count him out.

Ohio’s 15th Congressional District Republican incumbent Deborah Pryce of Ohio’s 15th Congressional District is in trouble. A mismanaged campaign underestimated her democratic opponent Mary Jo Kilroy. The oversight might cost her the election in a Columbus landscape that is becoming more liberal.

Texas’s 22nd Congressional District In Texas’s 22nd district Tom Delay’s Republican replacement Shelley Sekula-Gibbs squares off against Democratic elect Nick Lampson. Though the district maintains it Republican alliances, not as strongly since the 2003 redistricting. This key race was thought to be leaning Democrat due recent scandal that caused Delay to step down, but the Republican ideology of this district should not be underestimated.

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• Interactive Map: Key Races in the Fight to Control Congress